Individuals & Families

Resources & Education


Text Size: Decrease Increase
Weekly Bulletin, a publication written by Mark Luschini, Janney’s Chief Investment Strategist, provides insights on the state of our economy as well as our market outlook.

December 10, 2018

Economic Indicators Remain Favorable Despite Market Volatility.

We continue to view current volatility as a correction in an ongoing bull market. While there is much to be resolved in the trade dispute, we do not believe it will derail the U.S. economic expansion. The incoming U.S. economic date remains healthy (see full document).

While the yield curve has flattened, it has yet to invert and the lead-time between inversion and the onset of a subsequent economic contraction (14–34 months) has been quite inconsistent. Meanwhile, stocks rose 15-16% on average in the 18 months following inversions, with a range of -11% to +30%. We also believe lower oil prices are being caused by excess supply (driven by rapid U.S. shale oil production growth) rather than lower demand. This should ultimately be positive for economic growth and low inflation.

Learn more by downloading the full Weekly Bulletin.