• Interest Rate Update: Bonds’ Big Moves

    Interest rates across countries have been moving up with unusual speed over the past four to six weeks, leading to sharp declines in the market values of a range of bonds. While 2022 has been one of worst years for fixed income performance in memory, the activity of the past month stands out as uniquely stark.

  • Thoughts on Battle Between Inflation and the Federal Reserve

    Stocks are reacting negatively to the 0.75% interest rate increase after the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting on Wednesday, which included projections for interest rates to be higher for longer than many market participants expected. We have the following thoughts as this battle between the Federal Reserve and inflation continues.

  • Anatomy of a Policy Error

    The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee raised their target for overnight interest rates 0.75%, the third increase of that magnitude, and easily the fastest pace of hikes in any three month period in four decades.

  • Inflation Remains the Major Market Concern

    Stocks reacted negatively to the latest inflation reading from the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which suggests that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will remain on its aggressive path of interest rate hikes for the foreseeable future.

  • Thoughts on Current Stock Market Drivers

    Stocks broke a three-week losing streak with a strong rebound last week and remain in a trading range established after the June low.

  • Midterm Elections: The Other Four-Year Cycle

    As the market works through what is often the weakest month of the year, many traders’ sights are set on another far more productive seasonal pattern.

  • September Investment Perspectives

    Near-term uncertainty, quantitative tightening measures, and preparing for September stock activity.

  • Indicators Consistent With Continued but Slower Growth

    Stocks have been under pressure ever since Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Powell strongly reiterated that the Fed would continue pursuing its higher interest rate policy until inflation returns to its 2% long-term target.

  • Insights on Stocks Amid Market Uncertainty

    After spending the first half of last month with the S&P 500 on track for one of its best August results since 2000, the market ran headlong into the realization that interest rates might be higher for longer than previously had been hoped.

  • The Future of Defense Spending

    With the war in Ukraine ongoing and geopolitical tensions with China showing no signs of receding, there is a renewed focus on defense spending not seen since the Cold War. Consequently, we expect investor interest in the defense industry to remain high in the coming years. This piece reviews critical aspects of the defense industry and highlights where future modernization dollars could be spent.

  • The Battle Between the Fed and Inflation Continues

    Stocks sold off on Friday after Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Powell strongly reiterated that the Fed would continue pursuing its higher interest rate policy until inflation returns to its 2% long-term target. This implies slower future economic growth to reduce demand and ease inflation pressures.

  • FED Plans, Economy Laughs

    There are numerous annual academic conferences hosted by the dozen regional Federal Reserve Banks, from the Atlanta Fed’s Markets Conference (Amelia Island in May!) to the Chicago Fed’s Annual Economic Outlook Symposium (Windy City in December…), but few have captured market attention like the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium hosted each August.

  • Mixed Signals For the Economy Continue

  • Embrace the Bear

    Bear markets have an undeservedly bad reputation. Without them, long-term investors would not have great buying opportunities.

  • Importance of Semiconductors and Chips Act

    Semiconductors are the brains of modern electronics, enabling technologies critical to U.S. economic growth, national security, and global competitiveness. Semiconductors have driven advances in communications, computing, health care, military systems, transportation, clean energy, and countless other applications.

  • Thoughts on the Inflation Reduction Act

    President Biden is set to sign into law legislation designed to lower prescription drug prices, boost the renewable energy sector, and impose new taxes on large corporations. We have the following thoughts on this legislation.

  • Healthy Labor Market Not Consistent With Recession

    Stocks rose again for the third straight week as earnings continue to come in better than expected while the July employment report suggests that the U.S. economy is not in recession.

  • August Investment Perspectives

    Recession definition, monitoring moves by looking at bond market volatility, and is the tide turning for equities?

  • We're in the Great Game Now

    Excuse the break in the sci-fi themed FOMC notes this July in favor of another favorite. And remember, the great game is terrifying.

  • Recession Obsession

    Putting weakened economic conditions into perspective, President Harry S. Truman said: “It’s a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it’s a depression when you lose your own.” Although neither condition exists now, concern that the U.S. economy might face a recession recently has some investors unnecessarily in a state of depression.

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