• Healthy Labor Market Not Consistent With Recession

    Stocks rose again for the third straight week as earnings continue to come in better than expected while the July employment report suggests that the U.S. economy is not in recession.

  • August Investment Perspectives

    Recession definition, monitoring moves by looking at bond market volatility, and is the tide turning for equities?

  • Earnings Remain a Key Support for Stocks

    Stocks had their best month in July since 2020, with the S&P 500 Index up 9.2%. Messaging from the Federal Reserve (Fed) that was perceived as dovish after they raised short-term interest rates by 0.75%, and better than feared corporate earnings have supported equities. This is outweighing the incoming economic data, which continues to show deceleration.

  • Stocks Seek Momentum After Best Month Since 2020

    After reaching a mid-month low, the S&P 500 ended July with a gain eight times better than its long-term average and the best gain for any month since November 2020. The S&P 500’s 9.11% gain last month was the best result for July in the last 72 years.

  • We're in the Great Game Now

    Excuse the break in the sci-fi themed FOMC notes this July in favor of another favorite. And remember, the great game is terrifying.

  • Recession Obsession

    Putting weakened economic conditions into perspective, President Harry S. Truman said: “It’s a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it’s a depression when you lose your own.” Although neither condition exists now, concern that the U.S. economy might face a recession recently has some investors unnecessarily in a state of depression.

  • Further Evidence of Economic Slowdown

    We continue to see a significant deceleration in the incoming economic data, which raises the risk of recession. Inflation remains the major concern for consumers, businesses, and market participants.

  • The Cost of Waiting

    This report explains how the “cost of waiting” in cash, as opposed to investing in bonds, has grown and the forward return profile of fixed income instruments is more balanced.

  • How Much Recession Risk is Baked Into Stocks

    Inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s response to it, remains the primary concern of market participants. The longer inflation stays high, the more work the Fed must do via interest rate hikes, which increases the risk of recession.

  • The Buck Probably Does Not Stop Here

    To indicate his ultimate responsibility for the actions of his administration, President Harry S. Truman famously had a sign on his desk inscribed with the phrase “The Buck Stops Here.” In a different context, a buck these days has significant influence investors should not overlook ahead of the second-quarter earnings report period.

  • July Investment Perspectives

    Recession possibilities, the credit cycle and its phases, and expectations for equities.

  • A Further Moderation in Economic Growth

    While market concerns are centered on recession fears, the incoming data remains consistent with further, but slower, economic growth.

  • The Race Between the Fed and Inflation Continues

    Stocks and most other assets had a very difficult first half of 2022. The S&P 500 Index fell by 24% from its January 3rd peak before its recent bounce, with the index finishing the first half down 20%.

  • Outlook 2022: Mid-Year Update

    Among the many concerns expressed in our initial Outlook 2022 publication, inflation has overwritten most of them. So too has the Federal Reserve’s response to it. While we did not think the risk associated with prices running at the highest in four decades would overwhelm consumer behavior so much as to thwart the economic expansion, it has clearly stunted activity.

  • Stocks Rebound Despite More Signs of Economic Slowdown

    The S&P 500 Index rebounded 6.4% last week, with its best day since 2020 on Friday, as fears of an aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) receded.

  • Valuation Variables

    In the complex and often confusing investing world, investors seek reference tools to guide them as to what to buy and when to buy it.

  • FOMC Commentary: Fed Moves to Red Alert

    The first rate hike of this cycle in March feels awfully far away. After starting moderately, the FOMC today elected to execute the largest rate hike in more than a quarter century on the backs of rising consumer inflation expectations.

  • June Investment Perspectives

    Finding direction with manufacturing and services data, fixed income & economic growth, and issues facing stocks this summer.

  • Portfolio Positioning for High Inflation

    Stocks remain volatile due to stubbornly high inflation readings that are leading to higher bond yields and Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. In this environment, we are often asked what an investor can do to protect their portfolio’s future purchasing power.

  • Cybersecurity Update

    This paper reviews the critical aspects of cybersecurity and security spending.

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