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Michael Halloran August 9, 2022
Stocks rose again for the third straight week as earnings continue to come in better than expected while the July employment report suggests that the U.S. economy is not in recession.
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Mark Luschini, Guy LeBas and Gregory M. Drahuschak August 5, 2022
Recession definition, monitoring moves by looking at bond market volatility, and is the tide turning for equities?
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Michael Halloran August 2, 2022
Stocks had their best month in July since 2020, with the S&P 500 Index up 9.2%. Messaging from the Federal Reserve (Fed) that was perceived as dovish after they raised short-term interest rates by 0.75%, and better than feared corporate earnings have supported equities. This is outweighing the incoming economic data, which continues to show deceleration.
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Gregory M. Drahuschak August 1, 2022
After reaching a mid-month low, the S&P 500 ended July with a gain eight times better than its long-term average and the best gain for any month since November 2020. The S&P 500’s 9.11% gain last month was the best result for July in the last 72 years.
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Guy LeBas July 28, 2022
Excuse the break in the sci-fi themed FOMC notes this July in favor of another favorite. And remember, the great game is terrifying.
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Gregory M. Drahuschak July 27, 2022
Putting weakened economic conditions into perspective, President Harry S. Truman said: “It’s a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it’s a depression when you lose your own.” Although neither condition exists now, concern that the U.S. economy might face a recession recently has some investors unnecessarily in a state of depression.
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Michael Halloran July 26, 2022
We continue to see a significant deceleration in the incoming economic data, which raises the risk of recession. Inflation remains the major concern for consumers, businesses, and market participants.
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Guy LeBas July 19, 2022
This report explains how the “cost of waiting” in cash, as opposed to investing in bonds, has grown and the forward return profile of fixed income instruments is more balanced.
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Michael Halloran July 18, 2022
Inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s response to it, remains the primary concern of market participants. The longer inflation stays high, the more work the Fed must do via interest rate hikes, which increases the risk of recession.
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Gregory M. Drahuschak July 12, 2022
To indicate his ultimate responsibility for the actions of his administration, President Harry S. Truman famously had a sign on his desk inscribed with the phrase “The Buck Stops Here.” In a different context, a buck these days has significant influence investors should not overlook ahead of the second-quarter earnings report period.
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Mark Luschini, Guy LeBas and Gregory M. Drahuschak July 12, 2022
Recession possibilities, the credit cycle and its phases, and expectations for equities.
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Michael Halloran July 11, 2022
While market concerns are centered on recession fears, the incoming data remains consistent with further, but slower, economic growth.
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Michael Halloran July 6, 2022
Stocks and most other assets had a very difficult first half of 2022. The S&P 500 Index fell by 24% from its January 3rd peak before its recent bounce, with the index finishing the first half down 20%.
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Guy LeBas and Mark Luschini June 29, 2022
Among the many concerns expressed in our initial Outlook 2022 publication, inflation has overwritten most of them. So too has the Federal Reserve’s response to it. While we did not think the risk associated with prices running at the highest in four decades would overwhelm consumer behavior so much as to thwart the economic expansion, it has clearly stunted activity.
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Michael Halloran June 28, 2022
The S&P 500 Index rebounded 6.4% last week, with its best day since 2020 on Friday, as fears of an aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) receded.
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Gregory M. Drahuschak June 24, 2022
In the complex and often confusing investing world, investors seek reference tools to guide them as to what to buy and when to buy it.
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Guy LeBas June 15, 2022
The first rate hike of this cycle in March feels awfully far away. After starting moderately, the FOMC today elected to execute the largest rate hike in more than a quarter century on the backs of rising consumer inflation expectations.
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Mark Luschini, Guy LeBas and Gregory M. Drahuschak June 7, 2022
Finding direction with manufacturing and services data, fixed income & economic growth, and issues facing stocks this summer.
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Michael Halloran May 23, 2022
Stocks remain volatile due to stubbornly high inflation readings that are leading to higher bond yields and Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. In this environment, we are often asked what an investor can do to protect their portfolio’s future purchasing power.
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Michael Halloran May 20, 2022
This paper reviews the critical aspects of cybersecurity and security spending.