All Insights & Commentary

  • The Market Selloff in Context

    Michael Halloran June 22, 2022

    The S&P 500 Index officially entered bear market territory last week, driven by concerns of slowing economic growth, persistently high inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) determination to get it under control.

  • Thoughts on Stubbornly High Inflation and Our Outlook

    Michael Halloran June 14, 2022

    Stocks remain under pressure, with concerns centered on stubbornly high inflation. The longer inflation stays high, the more interest rate hikes the Federal Reserve might need to pursue, which could increase the chance of recession and lower corporate profits.

  • Despite Recession Fears, a Path Still Exists for a Soft Economic Landing

    Michael Halloran June 6, 2022

    While market concerns remain focused on inflation and recession fears, the incoming data remains consistent with above-trend economic growth, with few odds of a near-term recession.

  • Economic Indicators Remain Positive with Further Signs of Peak Inflation

    Michael Halloran June 1, 2022

    While stocks staged a strong rebound last week, we continue to field concerns about the economy, inflation, and Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes. We have the following observations regarding these concerns.

  • Thoughts on Valuation Compression, Recession Fears, and Market Volatility

    Michael Halloran May 24, 2022

    Stocks remain under pressure, and we see two major causes for this. The first is that valuation is compressing as interest rates move higher. The second is that higher interest rates could ultimately slow the economy to the point of recession, which would result in lower corporate profits. These sources of volatility are discussed below.

  • We Continue to Advise Focusing on Long-term Investment Objectives

    Michael Halloran May 17, 2022

    Investor concern remains focused on high inflation readings, the Federal Reserve’s pursuit of higher interest rates to slow the economy and combat inflationary pressures, and the risk that this could push the economy into recession. All of this is outweighing the surprising strength of first-quarter earnings results and still positive economic growth indicators. We have the following observations as we continue to stress the importance of sticking with long-term investment plans.

  • Investor Focus Remains on Inflation and Higher Interest Rates

    Michael Halloran May 10, 2022

    Stocks remain volatile with investor concern focused on surging bond yields, Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, and the potential for higher rates to ultimately lead to a significant economic slowdown. These concerns are outweighing still positive economic readings and healthy first-quarter earnings where results are exceeding expectations, which is leading to modest upward revisions for the remainder of 2022.

  • Stocks Would Benefit From Reduced Inflation Uncertainty

    Michael Halloran May 3, 2022

    Stocks faced another challenging month in April with the S&P 500 Index down 8.7% for the month and down 12.9% for the year. High inflation readings and the amount of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes needed to tame inflation-driving demand remain the major sources of market uncertainty. The Ukraine crisis and China’s COVID lockdowns are also adding to the uncertain outlook.

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