Filtered by Markets & Economics

  • Valuation Variables

    In the complex and often confusing investing world, investors seek reference tools to guide them as to what to buy and when to buy it.

  • The Market Selloff in Context

    The S&P 500 Index officially entered bear market territory last week, driven by concerns of slowing economic growth, persistently high inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) determination to get it under control.

  • What Should Investors Focus On Right Now?

    Of course, investors are paying attention to how their portfolios are responding to inflation and rising interest rates. However, we believe the U.S. economy continues to show positive economic growth—this should allow stock prices to eventually stabilize.

  • Thoughts on Stubbornly High Inflation and Our Outlook

    Stocks remain under pressure, with concerns centered on stubbornly high inflation. The longer inflation stays high, the more interest rate hikes the Federal Reserve might need to pursue, which could increase the chance of recession and lower corporate profits.

  • Despite Recession Fears, a Path Still Exists for a Soft Economic Landing

    While market concerns remain focused on inflation and recession fears, the incoming data remains consistent with above-trend economic growth, with few odds of a near-term recession.

  • Economic Indicators Remain Positive with Further Signs of Peak Inflation

    While stocks staged a strong rebound last week, we continue to field concerns about the economy, inflation, and Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes. We have the following observations regarding these concerns.

  • Thoughts on Valuation Compression, Recession Fears, and Market Volatility

    Stocks remain under pressure, and we see two major causes for this. The first is that valuation is compressing as interest rates move higher. The second is that higher interest rates could ultimately slow the economy to the point of recession, which would result in lower corporate profits. These sources of volatility are discussed below.

  • Portfolio Positioning for High Inflation

    Stocks remain volatile due to stubbornly high inflation readings that are leading to higher bond yields and Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. In this environment, we are often asked what an investor can do to protect their portfolio’s future purchasing power.

  • We Continue to Advise Focusing on Long-term Investment Objectives

    Investor concern remains focused on high inflation readings, the Federal Reserve’s pursuit of higher interest rates to slow the economy and combat inflationary pressures, and the risk that this could push the economy into recession. All of this is outweighing the surprising strength of first-quarter earnings results and still positive economic growth indicators. We have the following observations as we continue to stress the importance of sticking with long-term investment plans.

  • Investor Focus Remains on Inflation and Higher Interest Rates

    Stocks remain volatile with investor concern focused on surging bond yields, Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, and the potential for higher rates to ultimately lead to a significant economic slowdown. These concerns are outweighing still positive economic readings and healthy first-quarter earnings where results are exceeding expectations, which is leading to modest upward revisions for the remainder of 2022.

  • Stocks Would Benefit From Reduced Inflation Uncertainty

    Stocks faced another challenging month in April with the S&P 500 Index down 8.7% for the month and down 12.9% for the year. High inflation readings and the amount of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes needed to tame inflation-driving demand remain the major sources of market uncertainty. The Ukraine crisis and China’s COVID lockdowns are also adding to the uncertain outlook.

  • Don’t Dismiss Stocks’ Potential Despite Rough Start

    Year-to-date by mid-March this year, the S&P 500 was down 11.2%, which was its fifth-worst start to a year. The common belief that when a year starts poorly the full-year result is poor prompted investor concerns. As typically is true in any assessment of how the stock market will react, reaching simplistic conclusions can be dangerous.

  • Rate Hikes and the Stock Market

    For weeks, the stock market has been concerned about the potential for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates for the first time since December 2015. History shows that rate hikes, on their own, are not the consistent drag investors often perceive them to be.

  • How big of an oil price spike can the U.S. consumer and economy take?

    Markets remain volatile with attention focused on the uncertainty created by the Ukrainian crisis and the impact this is having on key commodity prices, especially oil.

  • How Stocks React to Conflicts

    Nothing can diminish the severity of the current turmoil in Ukraine on the nation’s citizens and to a wider extent, anyone that craves peace. Nonetheless, as several recent Investment Strategy Group reports showed, events like this typically have relatively modest and short-lived market impact. Not every geopolitical event matches the norms, but history suggests that the Ukraine situation is not likely to impair the market for long.

  • Video: Outlook 2022

    Watch as our Janney strategists discuss what to expect from the economy, equities, and fixed income in the year ahead.

  • How our behavioral biases impact investment decision-making (Part IV)

    Explore the Impact of the endowment effect, sunk-cost fallacy, and illusion of control.

  • How our behavioral biases impact investment decision-making (Part III)

    Exploring Overconfidence, Anchoring, and Herding

  • Preserve purchasing power to weaken inflation’s impact

  • How our behavioral biases impact investment decision-making (Part II)

    Exploring Familiarity Bias, Framing Bias, and Mental Accounting

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