Filtered by Policy & Regulation

  • Begging for the taper

    Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell wrote the script for the September FOMC meeting at last month’s Jackson Hole Conference, a matter we discussed in the note Pace over Timing.

  • Gimme three steps toward the door?

    The June FOMC meeting was one that launched a billion flatteners. The combination of Fed policymakers leaving inflation forecasts unchanged, but predicting more rate hikes in 2023 ran smack into 12 months of verbal assurances that rate hikes would be less sensitive to inflation in the coming cycle.

  • Hot inflation summer

    The cool phrase for this season is the “Hot Vax Summer” (credit to John Oliver). One side effect, as we have seen from the last two months of CPI prints, is that summer 2021 is also turning into the “Hot Inflation Summer.”

  • A closer look at Biden's potential tax increases

    The Biden administration is set to raise corporate taxes as part of the $2.25 trillion American Jobs Plan, which seeks to raise $2 trillion in tax revenue over 10 years in order to fund the new infrastructure-focused spending package.

  • Hawaiian shirts for Newfoundlands

    It is unclear whether Federal Reserve officials are meeting in person or via Zoom. After all, it seems likely that most if not all FOMC members are fully vaccinated, but perhaps they’re trying to set a conservative example.

  • Biden unveils his ambitious infrastructure plan

    After recent passage of the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan designed for pandemic relief, President Biden has now turned attention to his infrastructure plan.

  • Does it get better than this?

    Monthly releases of measures of economic activity in their regions from many Federal Reserve offices always get attention, but few can match the most recent report from Philadelphia Fed office that reached a level not seen in 50 years.

  • FOMC Commentary: Yes, but what about the SLR?

    Unsurprisingly, the FOMC held rates constant at the zero lower bound at their March meeting, and left other aspects of monetary policy largely unchanged despite rising long-term interest rates.

  • FOMC Commentary: Roughly balanced

    Fed Chair Jay Powell was not shy about sharing his opinions on the economic and policy outlook just two weeks ago in his microwave-side chat.

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