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Jody Lurie July 22, 2019
US high yield corporate bond total returns have exceeded all other major fixed income sectors year-to-date at 10.2% as of writing. With a more dovish Fed and a rate cut on the horizon, the reasons to buy high yield are there. At the same time, the reasons for rate cuts remind us that credit risk is an important factor in high yield corporate debt, and the catalysts for credit quality improvements may not exist.
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July 22, 2019
Although the US tax system has included various versions of a minimum tax since 1969, the Alternative Minimum Tax regime resembling the current system was enacted with the Revenue Act of 1978. The AMT is a parallel tax system designed to reduce the number of taxpayers who pay little or no tax due to deductions and exemptions.
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Jody Lurie July 22, 2019
The Fed released its stress test results at the end of last month, with all the banks passing its quantitative and qualitative checks. While each individual bank’s credit quality has improved post-recession, questions about the strength of the broader financial system remain. What the Fed has bookmarked as potential problem areas is helpful in positioning against major market risks.
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Michael Halloran July 16, 2019
Stocks hit record highs last week, driven by the promise of lower interest rates while the incoming economic data remains consistent with slower, but still positive, economic growth.
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July 15, 2019
1. Daily Fix, 2. US Interest Rate Forecasts, 3. Bank, Thrift & MHC Summary Valuation, 4. Recent Bank M&A Transactions, 5. Relevant Janney Capital Markets Professionals
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Guy LeBas, Mark Luschini and Gregory M. Drahuschak July 10, 2019
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Michael Halloran July 9, 2019
As the market cheered the U.S.-China trade truce last week, the incoming economic data continued to show slower, but still positive, U.S. economic growth (we expected this after tax cuts and increased government spending boosted 2018 growth).
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Mark Luschini and Guy LeBas July 8, 2019
The Mid-Year Update presents a follow-up to our annual view published last December and affords a chance to make adjustments, if necessary, for what we expect to come during the remainder of the year.
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July 8, 2019
We begin 2019 with a benchmark allocation to risk assets. Despite expecting slower economic growth in 2019, the fourth quarter 2018 financial market pessimism seems excessive – we do not see a recession in the foreseeable future.
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Michael Halloran July 8, 2019
Learn about the investment implications around Brexit uncertainty.
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Guy LeBas July 8, 2019
In December/January, that excuse came in the form of tightening financial conditions, which allowed for the patient pause in place today.
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Michael Halloran July 5, 2019
Stocks are now reaching new all-time highs as a result of the U.S.-China trade war truce announced this weekend.
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Michael Halloran July 5, 2019
Stocks reached all-time highs last week, as investors reacted favorably to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) dovish stance and increasing likelihood of near-term interest rate cuts.
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July 2, 2019
The first half of 2019 was good for municipal bond investors.
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June 26, 2019
1. Daily Fix, 2. Bank, Thrift & MHC Summary Valuation, 3. Recent Bank M&A Transactions, 4. Relevant Janney Capital Markets Professionals
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Michael Halloran June 25, 2019
After becoming concerned that China was backing away from promised reforms, President Trump stated that he would increase the current 10% tariff rate on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports to 25%, a move that was originally due March 1, but was delayed to extend the talks and seek a better agreement.
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Michael Halloran June 25, 2019
Last night President Trump opened up a second front on trade by promising a 5% tariff on all Mexican goods by June 10 (rising to 25% by October) if Mexico doesn’t stop the flow of Central American immigrants to the U.S. President Trump invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which gives the president broad leeway if he certifies a national emergency.
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Mark Luschini June 25, 2019
I last authored a report under this banner the morning of December 26, 2018. At that time, stocks had plummeted to an S&P level of 2,351 and some pundits thought the market had much further to go. We wrote, “It is time to buy.”
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Jody Lurie June 24, 2019
How companies spend their cash is an important consideration from a credit quality standpoint. In the current environment, companies have been doing more with less—a corporate strategy trend that developed in the post-recession era.
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June 24, 2019
This outperformance has been particularly notable since the 10-year ratio has been above 80% since before the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent Great Recession.