• U-Turn complete; Elapsed time 7.5 months

    As we noted in our May commentary, Jay Powell and friends seemed to be looking for any excuse to cut rates.

  • Municipal Market Monthly — July

    In theory the $58B total of new 2019 cash is enough to absorb more than a third of the first six months of municipal new issue volume ($166.8B).

  • New tariffs raise the uncertainty of a final trade deal

    Stocks are reacting negatively after President Trump’s announcement of a 10% tariff on $300 billion in Chinese imports, which extends the 18-month trade war (25% tariffs were already in place for $250 billion worth of imports) and now puts tariffs on essentially all $550 billion worth of goods coming from China, with this round concentrated in consumer goods.

  • Bank & Thrift Newsletter

    1. Daily Fix, 2. FOMC Commentary, 3. Bank, Thrift & MHC Summary Valuation, 4. Recent Bank M&A Transactions, 5. Relevant Janney Capital Markets Professionals

  • Bank & Thrift Newsletter

    1. Daily Fix, 2. From the Desk, 3. Bank, Thrift & MHC Summary Valuation, 4. Recent Bank M&A Transactions, 5. Relevant Janney Capital Markets Professionals

  • Stocks make new highs on better earnings while anticipating global improvements

    Stocks made new highs again last week, with earnings that are coming in better than expected. A healthy consumer continues to support U.S. economic growth. Meanwhile, global manufacturing conditions remain weak and we continue to anticipate China’s economic stimulus will lead to better global conditions.

  • Bank & Thrift Newsletter

    1. Daily Fix, 2. Investable Themes, 3. Ask the Strategist, 4. Bank, Thrift & MHC Summary Valuation, 5. Recent Bank M&A Transactions, 6. Relevant Janney Capital Markets Professionals

  • Encouraged by healthy retail sales and a positive start to earnings season

    Stocks touched all-time highs Monday and we remain optimistic that the global economic slowdown is troughing while the U.S. economy remains on an expansionary path.

  • High yield: When you come to a fork in the road, take it

    US high yield corporate bond total returns have exceeded all other major fixed income sectors year-to-date at 10.2% as of writing. With a more dovish Fed and a rate cut on the horizon, the reasons to buy high yield are there. At the same time, the reasons for rate cuts remind us that credit risk is an important factor in high yield corporate debt, and the catalysts for credit quality improvements may not exist.

  • Should I consider investing in municipal bonds that are subject to AMT?

    Although the US tax system has included various versions of a minimum tax since 1969, the Alternative Minimum Tax regime resembling the current system was enacted with the Revenue Act of 1978. The AMT is a parallel tax system designed to reduce the number of taxpayers who pay little or no tax due to deductions and exemptions.

  • Not so stressed out but testing the waters

    The Fed released its stress test results at the end of last month, with all the banks passing its quantitative and qualitative checks. While each individual bank’s credit quality has improved post-recession, questions about the strength of the broader financial system remain. What the Fed has bookmarked as potential problem areas is helpful in positioning against major market risks.

  • Stocks make new highs on dovish Federal Reserve comments

    Stocks hit record highs last week, driven by the promise of lower interest rates while the incoming economic data remains consistent with slower, but still positive, economic growth.

  • Bank & Thrift Newsletter

    1. Daily Fix, 2. US Interest Rate Forecasts, 3. Bank, Thrift & MHC Summary Valuation, 4. Recent Bank M&A Transactions, 5. Relevant Janney Capital Markets Professionals

  • Spiking the punch bowl, the next economic downturn, and second-half surge

  • Economic readings remain consistent with slower but still positive growth

    As the market cheered the U.S.-China trade truce last week, the incoming economic data continued to show slower, but still positive, U.S. economic growth (we expected this after tax cuts and increased government spending boosted 2018 growth).

  • Outlook 2019: Mid-Year Update

    The Mid-Year Update presents a follow-up to our annual view published last December and affords a chance to make adjustments, if necessary, for what we expect to come during the remainder of the year.

  • What happened to asset class returns in 2018?

    We begin 2019 with a benchmark allocation to risk assets. Despite expecting slower economic growth in 2019, the fourth quarter 2018 financial market pessimism seems excessive – we do not see a recession in the foreseeable future.

  • Brexit investment implications update

    Learn about the investment implications around Brexit uncertainty.

  • Any excuse will do

    In December/January, that excuse came in the form of tightening financial conditions, which allowed for the patient pause in place today.

  • Stocks post stellar first half and react favorably to reduced trade tension

    Stocks are now reaching new all-time highs as a result of the U.S.-China trade war truce announced this weekend.

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