• Stocks react favorably to the dovish Federal Reserve meeting outcome

    Stocks reached all-time highs last week, as investors reacted favorably to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) dovish stance and increasing likelihood of near-term interest rate cuts.

  • Municipal Market Monthly — June

    The first half of 2019 was good for municipal bond investors.

  • Bank & Thrift Newsletter

    1. Daily Fix, 2. Bank, Thrift & MHC Summary Valuation, 3. Recent Bank M&A Transactions, 4. Relevant Janney Capital Markets Professionals

  • Update on investment implications of US-China trade talks

    After becoming concerned that China was backing away from promised reforms, President Trump stated that he would increase the current 10% tariff rate on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports to 25%, a move that was originally due March 1, but was delayed to extend the talks and seek a better agreement.

  • Update on market volatility and trade tensions

    Last night President Trump opened up a second front on trade by promising a 5% tariff on all Mexican goods by June 10 (rising to 25% by October) if Mexico doesn’t stop the flow of Central American immigrants to the U.S. President Trump invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which gives the president broad leeway if he certifies a national emergency.

  • Selling often has no discretion

    I last authored a report under this banner the morning of December 26, 2018. At that time, stocks had plummeted to an S&P level of 2,351 and some pundits thought the market had much further to go. We wrote, “It is time to buy.”

  • Where has all the Capex gone

    How companies spend their cash is an important consideration from a credit quality standpoint. In the current environment, companies have been doing more with less—a corporate strategy trend that developed in the post-recession era.

  • Municipal Market Monthly — May

    This outperformance has been particularly notable since the 10-year ratio has been above 80% since before the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent Great Recession.

  • Municipal Market Monthly — April

    Multiple factors can impact M/T ratio levels over time, including shifting supply and demand levels.

  • Texas Permanent School Fund

    The security provisions of these programs produce ratings that are based in part or in whole on the state’s creditworthiness and the mechanics of the program, often allowing school districts to finance capital expenditures at lower interest rates than might be available with bonds issued without the credit enhancement.

  • Easing credit stress for majority of states, but pressures still remain

    Given the depth of the last recession and moderate growth since, building reserves back to prior levels remains a challenge for some.

  • Semper paratus

    Since the market low March 9, 2009, a tidal wave of buying has lifted many market indices to unprecedented levels and taken many equity portfolios with it.

  • Deja vu all over again

    We believe market participants have taken an overly pessimistic view of the macroeconomic conditions that exist today, and seem likely to unfold over the balance of 2019.

  • Only a matter of time

    An old cliché says the price is truth, but there are times when price alone does not tell the whole story. We think this is one of those times.

  • Tax swaps and tax loss harvesting

    Investors, who have been negatively affected by credit quality deterioration, market volatility, or asset class selloffs, may be interested in repositioning for the coming year. Tax swaps and tax loss harvesting are worth exploring, especially as a part of year-end tax planning.

  • Effects of interest rates on bonds

    With yields on many parts of the fixed income market rising to levels not seen in half a decade or more, there remains a risk that interest rates could rise in the future.

  • Investment implications of midterm election results

    As anticipated by the consensus, Democrats took control of the House of Representatives, while Republicans retained their control of the Senate. We see a limited impact on financial markets as a consequence of the midterms. These results set the stage for two years of legislative gridlock, which has historically tended to benefit equities.

  • Encouraged by improving retail sales and still muted inflation

    We expect this strong showing by global consumers, coupled with low inflation that allows central banks to remain accommodative, to support further economic growth and prevent recession dynamics from taking hold.

  • Slower economic growth supports our neutral stance on stocks

    While stocks have rallied in relief that Mexican tariffs will be avoided and in anticipation that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates, we are maintaining our neutral stance toward stocks.

  • Shifting U.S. Demographics —  Trends Shaping the Future

    Over the years we have studied shifting demographic trends here in the U.S. - noting that with each boom / bust cycle occurring in U.S. population, the country oftentimes experienced significant economic and cultural changes.

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