The second in a series about the presidential election. The first report in this series was published in January.
The coronavirus, a plunge in oil prices, and resulting economic issues have overtaken equity markets recently, but at some point, the U.S. election will command increasing attention.
By the end of April, nearly 90% of all delegates to the Democratic National Convention will have been allocated. As of the primaries completed by the middle of March, former Vice President Joseph Biden holds a significant delegate count lead, but he still
is far from reaching the amount needed to secure the nomination at the Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, July 13–16, 2020. This leaves open the possibility of a contested convention, which party leaders want to avoid. Failing
to achieve a first-ballot nomination can be problematic, as several times this has led to the party without a first-ballot winner ultimately losing the general election.
Continue reading the full report (PDF)