As highlighted in a previous report in our election series, stock market movement in the three months before Election Day often predicts the outcome of a presidential election.

Historically, when the S&P 500 Index had a gain from July 31 through October 31, the incumbent, or his political party, retained the White House in all but one year. Whenever the S&P 500 declined in price during these three months, the incumbent or his party's candidate lost the election. The only exception occurred in 1956 when President Dwight D. Eisenhower won re-election despite the S&P 500 falling 7.71% during this three-month period.

Continue reading the full report (PDF)

About the author

For more information about Janney, please see Janney’s Relationship Summary (Form CRS) on which details all material facts about the scope and terms of our relationship with you and any potential conflicts of interest.

To learn about the professional background, business practices, and conduct of FINRA member firms or their financial professionals, visit FINRA’s BrokerCheck website: