With the inauguration of the 46th President of the United States only a week away, investors should consider the market pattern through the presidential election cycle.

The first year of a presidential term on average is not the best of the four-year cycle for the stock market. The S&P 500 ended lower in the first year after 10 of the 23 elections since 1928. However, the S&P 500 posted an average 22.07% advance in the first year of 13 presidential terms when the market had a gain.

Between 1950 and 2019, the stock market had annual gains 73% of the time. In year three of the presidential election cycle, the S&P 500 had an annual increase 88% of the time. In contrast, the market gained only 56% and 64% of the time, respectively, during years one and two of presidential terms.


Continue reading the full report (PDF)

About the author

For more information about Janney, please see Janney’s Relationship Summary (Form CRS) on www.janney.com/crs which details all material facts about the scope and terms of our relationship with you and any potential conflicts of interest.

To learn about the professional background, business practices, and conduct of FINRA member firms or their financial professionals, visit FINRA’s BrokerCheck website: http://brokercheck.finra.org/