• Thoughts on the Inflation Reduction Act

    President Biden is set to sign into law legislation designed to lower prescription drug prices, boost the renewable energy sector, and impose new taxes on large corporations. We have the following thoughts on this legislation.

  • Healthy Labor Market Not Consistent With Recession

    Stocks rose again for the third straight week as earnings continue to come in better than expected while the July employment report suggests that the U.S. economy is not in recession.

  • Earnings Remain a Key Support for Stocks

    Stocks had their best month in July since 2020, with the S&P 500 Index up 9.2%. Messaging from the Federal Reserve (Fed) that was perceived as dovish after they raised short-term interest rates by 0.75%, and better than feared corporate earnings have supported equities. This is outweighing the incoming economic data, which continues to show deceleration.

  • Stocks Seek Momentum After Best Month Since 2020

    After reaching a mid-month low, the S&P 500 ended July with a gain eight times better than its long-term average and the best gain for any month since November 2020. The S&P 500’s 9.11% gain last month was the best result for July in the last 72 years.

  • Recession Obsession

    Putting weakened economic conditions into perspective, President Harry S. Truman said: “It’s a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it’s a depression when you lose your own.” Although neither condition exists now, concern that the U.S. economy might face a recession recently has some investors unnecessarily in a state of depression.

  • Further Evidence of Economic Slowdown

    We continue to see a significant deceleration in the incoming economic data, which raises the risk of recession. Inflation remains the major concern for consumers, businesses, and market participants.

  • The Cost of Waiting

    This report explains how the “cost of waiting” in cash, as opposed to investing in bonds, has grown and the forward return profile of fixed income instruments is more balanced.

  • How Much Recession Risk is Baked Into Stocks

    Inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s response to it, remains the primary concern of market participants. The longer inflation stays high, the more work the Fed must do via interest rate hikes, which increases the risk of recession.

  • The Buck Probably Does Not Stop Here

    To indicate his ultimate responsibility for the actions of his administration, President Harry S. Truman famously had a sign on his desk inscribed with the phrase “The Buck Stops Here.” In a different context, a buck these days has significant influence investors should not overlook ahead of the second-quarter earnings report period.

  • A Further Moderation in Economic Growth

    While market concerns are centered on recession fears, the incoming data remains consistent with further, but slower, economic growth.

  • The Race Between the Fed and Inflation Continues

    Stocks and most other assets had a very difficult first half of 2022. The S&P 500 Index fell by 24% from its January 3rd peak before its recent bounce, with the index finishing the first half down 20%.

  • Valuation Variables

    In the complex and often confusing investing world, investors seek reference tools to guide them as to what to buy and when to buy it.

  • Portfolio Positioning for High Inflation

    Stocks remain volatile due to stubbornly high inflation readings that are leading to higher bond yields and Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. In this environment, we are often asked what an investor can do to protect their portfolio’s future purchasing power.

  • Don’t Dismiss Stocks’ Potential Despite Rough Start

    Year-to-date by mid-March this year, the S&P 500 was down 11.2%, which was its fifth-worst start to a year. The common belief that when a year starts poorly the full-year result is poor prompted investor concerns. As typically is true in any assessment of how the stock market will react, reaching simplistic conclusions can be dangerous.

  • Rate Hikes and the Stock Market

    For weeks, the stock market has been concerned about the potential for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates for the first time since December 2015. History shows that rate hikes, on their own, are not the consistent drag investors often perceive them to be.

  • How big of an oil price spike can the U.S. consumer and economy take?

    Markets remain volatile with attention focused on the uncertainty created by the Ukrainian crisis and the impact this is having on key commodity prices, especially oil.

  • How Stocks React to Conflicts

    Nothing can diminish the severity of the current turmoil in Ukraine on the nation’s citizens and to a wider extent, anyone that craves peace. Nonetheless, as several recent Investment Strategy Group reports showed, events like this typically have relatively modest and short-lived market impact. Not every geopolitical event matches the norms, but history suggests that the Ukraine situation is not likely to impair the market for long.

  • Video: Outlook 2022

    Watch as our Janney strategists discuss what to expect from the economy, equities, and fixed income in the year ahead.

  • How our behavioral biases impact investment decision-making (Part IV)

    Explore the Impact of the endowment effect, sunk-cost fallacy, and illusion of control.

  • How our behavioral biases impact investment decision-making (Part III)

    Exploring Overconfidence, Anchoring, and Herding

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