• Searching for a turning point

    It appears likely that the U.S. economy faces a recession. For many Americans, the more important issue is how long it might last and how deep it could be.

  • What might the economic recovery look like?

    As the federal government releases protocols to guide the country’s reboot, and states have begun to reopen, or establish near-term timelines for reopening, it is no longer premature to think about what the economic recovery might look like.

  • Coronavirus and the municipal bond market

    The COVID-19 crisis impacted municipal bonds more starkly and surprisingly than many other fixed income sectors.

  • Coronavirus market volatility update

    In lieu of our usual Weekly Bulletin, we are publishing special reports to discuss the market reaction to evolving news on the coronavirus outbreak. We would stress the following observations as developments continue to unfold.

  • Time for a checkup

    The broad-based drop in the equity market off the February 19, 2020, high and the resulting decline in most portfolio values easily could be blamed solely on the virus and its massive economic impact. Investors, however, need to consider whether the overall market drop alone deteriorated their portfolios.

  • Coronavirus market volatility update

    In lieu of our usual Weekly Bulletin, we are publishing special reports to discuss the market reaction to evolving news on the coronavirus outbreak. We would stress the following observations as developments continue to unfold.

  • Coronavirus market volatility update

    In lieu of our usual Weekly Bulletin, we are publishing special reports to discuss the market reaction to evolving news on the coronavirus outbreak. We would stress the following points as developments continue to unfold.

  • Covid testing data: Three steps to "normalcy"

    As of April 2, the American Clinical Lab Association (ACLA) indicated that group members have performed 1,093,000 tests compared to a cumulative total of 27,000 on March 17.

  • Historic crash sites and their aftermath

    In light of the historical declines and technical conditions generated by financial markets over the last few weeks, we took another look at some of the more significant correction cycles and crashes in the stock market’s long history, aligning our current glide path against these periods to uncover possible, not necessarily probable, outcomes going forward. This exercise is not meant to make exacting comparisons or predictions, but to learn from past cycles about what the markets might be capable of in the months ahead.

  • The relationship among oil prices, stocks, and economy

    The recent drop in stock prices has captured the attention of most investors. In a seemingly unrelated issue, a massive oversupply problem created a waterfall-like drop in the price of oil. It might appear that the performance of the S&P 500 and WTI is only coincidental, but history suggests otherwise.

  • Beware of dividends that look too good to be true

    A fundamental tenant of equity income investing is the sustainability of the dividend. A firm must generate sustainable earnings in order to pay a sustainable dividend. Often, a high dividend yield may look very enticing when actually it’s a sign that earnings, and consequently, dividends are about to be cut. This high yield distress signal occurs when the firm’s economic fundamentals are deteriorating.

  • Coronavirus market volatility update

    In lieu of our usual Weekly Bulletin, we are publishing special reports to discuss the market reaction to evolving news on the coronavirus outbreak. We would stress the following points as developments continue to unfold.

  • Details of the CARES Act Stimulus Program

    In response to the coronavirus economic shock, Congress just passed and we expect President Trump to sign into law, a massive, unprecedented economic stimulus package designed to bridge the economy through this extraordinary period.

  • Massive government stimulus package to bridge the economy

    In response to the coronavirus economic shock, the Senate and White House have agreed to a massive, unprecedented economic stimulus package designed to bridge the economy through this extraordinary period. This plan will be helpful to shallow the economic damage that has already been incurred, and will likely continue to be inflicted, until the outbreak subsides. While some details could change before final approval, major provisions included in the $2 trillion package are discussed below.

  • Coronavirus market volatility update

    In lieu of our usual Weekly Bulletin, we are publishing special reports to discuss the market reaction to evolving news on the coronavirus outbreak. We would stress the following points as developments continue to unfold.

  • Stocks uncertainty offers chance to review portfolio

    Rebalancing is a useful process at any point in a market cycle. While the market is rising, gradually adjusting the equity to fixed income or cash allocation can leave a portfolio less exposed to adverse events. There is a practical way to assess individual stocks that can lead to rebalancing while determining the worthiness of each portfolio member.

  • Municipal bonds during the COVID-19 crisis

    Financial markets have, in the past four weeks, experienced extreme volatility and in many cases losses. While the depth of the value declines in many markets were worse during the Global Financial Crisis more than a decade ago, the pace of value declines has been far steeper with the COVID-19 Crisis.

  • A year within a day for fixed income markets

    Financial markets are not broken.

  • Control what you can control

    A noted psychologist and professor at Princeton University, Daniel Kahneman, talked of having a “well-calibrated sense of your future regret.”

  • Frenzied trading continues

    The equity market yesterday began with pre-opening futures down the limit, as circuit breakers were implemented at the opening, which required a 15- minute trading halt.

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