• Economic readings remain consistent with slower but still positive growth

    As the market cheered the U.S.-China trade truce last week, the incoming economic data continued to show slower, but still positive, U.S. economic growth (we expected this after tax cuts and increased government spending boosted 2018 growth).

  • Outlook 2019: Mid-Year Update

    The Mid-Year Update presents a follow-up to our annual view published last December and affords a chance to make adjustments, if necessary, for what we expect to come during the remainder of the year.

  • What happened to asset class returns in 2018?

    We begin 2019 with a benchmark allocation to risk assets. Despite expecting slower economic growth in 2019, the fourth quarter 2018 financial market pessimism seems excessive – we do not see a recession in the foreseeable future.

  • Brexit investment implications update

    Learn about the investment implications around Brexit uncertainty.

  • Any excuse will do

    In December/January, that excuse came in the form of tightening financial conditions, which allowed for the patient pause in place today.

  • Stocks post stellar first half and react favorably to reduced trade tension

    Stocks are now reaching new all-time highs as a result of the U.S.-China trade war truce announced this weekend.

  • Stocks react favorably to the dovish Federal Reserve meeting outcome

    Stocks reached all-time highs last week, as investors reacted favorably to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) dovish stance and increasing likelihood of near-term interest rate cuts.

  • Update on investment implications of US-China trade talks

    After becoming concerned that China was backing away from promised reforms, President Trump stated that he would increase the current 10% tariff rate on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports to 25%, a move that was originally due March 1, but was delayed to extend the talks and seek a better agreement.

  • Update on market volatility and trade tensions

    Last night President Trump opened up a second front on trade by promising a 5% tariff on all Mexican goods by June 10 (rising to 25% by October) if Mexico doesn’t stop the flow of Central American immigrants to the U.S. President Trump invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which gives the president broad leeway if he certifies a national emergency.

  • Selling often has no discretion

    I last authored a report under this banner the morning of December 26, 2018. At that time, stocks had plummeted to an S&P level of 2,351 and some pundits thought the market had much further to go. We wrote, “It is time to buy.”

  • Municipal Market Monthly — May

    This outperformance has been particularly notable since the 10-year ratio has been above 80% since before the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent Great Recession.

  • Municipal Market Monthly — April

    Multiple factors can impact M/T ratio levels over time, including shifting supply and demand levels.

  • Texas Permanent School Fund

    The security provisions of these programs produce ratings that are based in part or in whole on the state’s creditworthiness and the mechanics of the program, often allowing school districts to finance capital expenditures at lower interest rates than might be available with bonds issued without the credit enhancement.

  • Easing credit stress for majority of states, but pressures still remain

    Given the depth of the last recession and moderate growth since, building reserves back to prior levels remains a challenge for some.

  • Semper paratus

    Since the market low March 9, 2009, a tidal wave of buying has lifted many market indices to unprecedented levels and taken many equity portfolios with it.

  • Deja vu all over again

    We believe market participants have taken an overly pessimistic view of the macroeconomic conditions that exist today, and seem likely to unfold over the balance of 2019.

  • Only a matter of time

    An old cliché says the price is truth, but there are times when price alone does not tell the whole story. We think this is one of those times.

  • Effects of interest rates on bonds

    With yields on many parts of the fixed income market rising to levels not seen in half a decade or more, there remains a risk that interest rates could rise in the future.

  • Investment implications of midterm election results

    As anticipated by the consensus, Democrats took control of the House of Representatives, while Republicans retained their control of the Senate. We see a limited impact on financial markets as a consequence of the midterms. These results set the stage for two years of legislative gridlock, which has historically tended to benefit equities.

  • Encouraged by improving retail sales and still muted inflation

    We expect this strong showing by global consumers, coupled with low inflation that allows central banks to remain accommodative, to support further economic growth and prevent recession dynamics from taking hold.

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