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  • Begging for the taper

    Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell wrote the script for the September FOMC meeting at last month’s Jackson Hole Conference, a matter we discussed in the note Pace over Timing.

  • Gimme three steps toward the door?

    The June FOMC meeting was one that launched a billion flatteners. The combination of Fed policymakers leaving inflation forecasts unchanged, but predicting more rate hikes in 2023 ran smack into 12 months of verbal assurances that rate hikes would be less sensitive to inflation in the coming cycle.

  • Hot inflation summer

    The cool phrase for this season is the “Hot Vax Summer” (credit to John Oliver). One side effect, as we have seen from the last two months of CPI prints, is that summer 2021 is also turning into the “Hot Inflation Summer.”

  • A closer look at Biden's potential tax increases

    The Biden administration is set to raise corporate taxes as part of the $2.25 trillion American Jobs Plan, which seeks to raise $2 trillion in tax revenue over 10 years in order to fund the new infrastructure-focused spending package.

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