• Same story, different market

    Quarterly FOMC meetings have lost some of their punch now that there’s a Chair’s press conference at all meetings, but at least we still have the economic projections.

  • U.S. Interest Rate Forecasts — 3rd Quarter

    Time to throw in the towel on our 1Q 2020 first cut forecast.

  • U.S. Interest Rate Forecasts — 2nd Quarter

    The Fed’s mantra has turned from lock-step-hiking to infinite patience, and pricing in the short term markets has executed a rapid u-turn.

  • Don’t make me turn this car around

    At their first meeting of 2019, the FOMC elected to hold interest rates unchanged, as widely expected. In an effort to make all FOMC meetings—not just the four quarterly ones—appear “live,” Chair Powell has opted to hold a press conference following all meetings (given his recent walk-backs, this particular strategist wonders whether that’s such a brilliant plan).

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