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Healthy Labor Market Not Consistent With Recession
Stocks rose again for the third straight week as earnings continue to come in better than expected while the July employment report suggests that the U.S. economy is not in recession.
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August Investment Perspectives
Recession definition, monitoring moves by looking at bond market volatility, and is the tide turning for equities?
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Earnings Remain a Key Support for Stocks
Stocks had their best month in July since 2020, with the S&P 500 Index up 9.2%. Messaging from the Federal Reserve (Fed) that was perceived as dovish after they raised short-term interest rates by 0.75%, and better than feared corporate earnings have supported equities. This is outweighing the incoming economic data, which continues to show deceleration.
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Stocks Seek Momentum After Best Month Since 2020
After reaching a mid-month low, the S&P 500 ended July with a gain eight times better than its long-term average and the best gain for any month since November 2020. The S&P 500’s 9.11% gain last month was the best result for July in the last 72 years.
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We're in the Great Game Now
Excuse the break in the sci-fi themed FOMC notes this July in favor of another favorite. And remember, the great game is terrifying.
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Recession Obsession
Putting weakened economic conditions into perspective, President Harry S. Truman said: “It’s a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it’s a depression when you lose your own.” Although neither condition exists now, concern that the U.S. economy might face a recession recently has some investors unnecessarily in a state of depression.
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Further Evidence of Economic Slowdown
We continue to see a significant deceleration in the incoming economic data, which raises the risk of recession. Inflation remains the major concern for consumers, businesses, and market participants.
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The Cost of Waiting
This report explains how the “cost of waiting” in cash, as opposed to investing in bonds, has grown and the forward return profile of fixed income instruments is more balanced.
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How Much Recession Risk is Baked Into Stocks
Inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s response to it, remains the primary concern of market participants. The longer inflation stays high, the more work the Fed must do via interest rate hikes, which increases the risk of recession.
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The Buck Probably Does Not Stop Here
To indicate his ultimate responsibility for the actions of his administration, President Harry S. Truman famously had a sign on his desk inscribed with the phrase “The Buck Stops Here.” In a different context, a buck these days has significant influence investors should not overlook ahead of the second-quarter earnings report period.
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