In less than a month, Democrats and Republicans will convene their quadrennial national conventions (Democrats, August 17-20 and Republicans, August 24-27) to formalize their presidential and vice-presidential nominees.

In 68 days after the Republican convention, the U.S. electorate will reaffirm the administration of the 45th president or begin preparation for the January 20, 2021, inaugural of the 46th president. The battle for residency at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue will command the most attention, but the post-election composition of the House of Representatives and Senate could be equally consequential.

Investors typically try to handicap what effect a potential winner’s policies might have on the stock market. Historically, however, what the stock market does through the three months immediately before the election often foretells who gains the White House.


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