Election 2020: To election and beyond
With Election Day fast approaching, the guessing game du jour attempts to match the possible election result with a potential stock market reaction, as analysts apply various mathematical divining rods to foretell who will reside in the White House on Inauguration Day.
One of these contends that what the S&P 500 does between July 31 and October 31 has a high probability of correctly forecasting the election outcome. If the S&P 500 has gain of any magnitude in this period, the incumbent, or his political party, will retain the White House. Conversely, an S&P 500 loss means the sitting president should reserve a moving van for January 20.
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