• Finding Some Zen in a Garden of Volatility

    After substantial increases in interest rates in early 2024, we view the fixed-income markets as fairly valued relative to the economic and Fed outlook. These valuations mark the first opportunity to add duration since the cautious position we advocated in our Outlook 2024.

  • Spring Rain Delay

    The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee left its target for overnight interest rates unchanged at a range of 5.25% – 5.50%, their fifth unchanged decision. Both markets and Fed officials have ruled out the necessity of further tightening barring any tail risk to inflation.

  • Once A Grinch, Forever Changed

    Fed policymakers held overnight interest rates unchanged at 5.25% - 5.50%, the fourth consecutive hold after 18 months of hikes.

  • Interest Rates in Turmoil

    The U.S. economy has a good chance to experience a garden-variety slowdown over the next 12 months and a small but growing chance to experience a multi-year productivity boom. If there is a mild recession, interest rates should fall somewhat. By contrast, if productivity growth does indeed accelerate, there is a lot more room for interest rates to rise.


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