To better position portfolios for the remainder of 2024, please take a few minutes to read the ISG Mid-Year Update to learn more about their expectations for the economy, and possible scenarios for the equity and fixed-income markets.


The Mid-Year Update offers the Janney Investment Strategy Group’s baseline prognostications for the economy, the equity and fixed-income markets, their evolution, and investment implications for the rest of 2024.

Economy & Equity Markets

Mark Luschini, Chief Investment Strategist

The U.S. economy’s resilience to elevated inflation and tightening monetary conditions is a demonstration of the underlying strength in household consumption. The excess savings accumulated during the pandemic and a tight labor market conspired to produce a thrust in consumer spending that remains stout.

While domestic economic activity has downshifted from last year’s torrid pace, it remains quite stout. Arguably, the report on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (shown below) understates its true momentum. Accounting for the negative impact from its two most volatile components, trade and inventories, growth still exceeded the 1.8% level scored by the Congressional Budget Office as potential for the U.S. in 2024. Perhaps an even better gauge to interpret the influence from the main driver of the economy, consumption, is real final sales to private domestic purchasers. When isolating that factor, important because approximately 68% of U.S. GDP comes from consumer spending, it is apparent that the loss of steam is relatively modest and remains above trend. Therefore, an adage we subscribe to “Get the consumer right, and you’ll get the economy right,” is richly applied in shaping our views throughout this section of the report.

Fixed Income & Interest Rates

Guy LeBas

In 2023, the U.S. bond markets faced a more complex landscape than at any point in memory.

Six months ago, Janney Investment Strategy Group highlighted the complex landscape faced by U.S. bond markets, with an end to the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle amid potentially persistent economic growth. Moreover, we argued that the influence of momentum-based trading strategies will continue to produce unusually large monthly swings in interest rates. Heading into the year, market pricing was completely inconsistent with our fundamental outlook, and staking a (bearish) position on interest rates was relatively easy. Today, not so much.


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This is for informative purposes only and in no event should be construed as a recommendation by us or as an offer to sell, or solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities. The information given herein is taken from sources that we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and do not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual investors. Employees of Janney Montgomery Scott LLC or its affiliates may, at times, release written or oral commentary, technical analysis, or trading strategies that differ from the opinions expressed here.


Returns reflect results of various indices based on target allocation weightings. Weightings are subject to change. Index returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any investment. Index performance returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs, or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged, and you cannot invest directly in an index.


Performance data quoted represents past performance and is no guarantee of future results. Current returns may be either higher or lower than those shown.


This report is the intellectual property of Janney Montgomery Scott LLC (Janney) and may not be reproduced, distributed, or published by any person for any purpose without Janney’s prior written consent.


This presentation has been prepared by Janney Investment Strategy Group (ISG) and is to be used for informational purposes only. In no event should it be construed as a solicitation or offer to purchase or sell a security. The information presented herein is taken from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Janney as to accuracy or completeness. Any issue named or rates mentioned are used for illustrative purposes only and may not represent the specific features or securities available at a given time. Preliminary Official Statements, Final Official Statements, or Prospectuses for any new issues mentioned herein are available upon request. The value of and income from investments may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, securities prices, and market indices, as well as operational or financial conditions of issuers or other factors. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Estimates of future performance are based on assumptions that may not be realized. We have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information contained in Janney ISG presentations or publications change.

About the authors

Mark Luschini

Chief Investment Strategist, President and Chief Investment Officer, Janney Capital Management

Read more from Mark Luschini

Guy LeBas

Director, Custom Fixed Income Solutions

Read more from Guy LeBas

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