Outlook 2025 offers the Janney Investment Strategy Group’s baseline prognostications for the economy, the equity and fixed-income markets, their evolution, and investment implications in the New Year.

Economy & Equity Markets

Mark Luschini, Chief Investment Strategist

Domestic economic activity is operating at an above-trend pace. Both the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office and the Federal Reserve estimate potential growth in U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a measure of a country’s overall output, to be about 2.0%. Yet the annualized rate in the U.S., according to the most recent report from the government for 3Q24, was 2.8%. Inside that release, a component called final sales to domestic purchasers, which is an excellent indication of spending (a driver of almost 70% of the U.S. economy) because it strips away the highly volatile variables of trade and inventory balances, posted 3.2% annualized, the best this year. A real-time but somewhat imprecise measure updated by the regional Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta has been trending at that level or higher throughout the fourth quarter. Collectively, this demonstrates a high degree of economic momentum leading into the opening months of 2025.

Fixed Income & Interest Rates

Guy LeBas, Chief Fixed Income Strategist

In our Outlook 2024 publication, we highlighted the split economic potential: the U.S. would either fall into a garden-variety, end-of-cycle slowdown, or benefit from productivity gains. It took until 3Q, but the U.S. private sector is now benefiting from a big boost in economic productivity. Given the economic trajectory, expectations of massive Fed rate cuts faded, and interest rates moved somewhat higher during the year. There were numerous trading opportunities, with interest rates trending across several regimes throughout the year.

Credit markets meanwhile held strong, with investment-grade (IG) and high-yield (HY) corporate spreads tightening considerably and validating our neutral-to-positive stance. Municipal bonds, while volatile due to supply shifts, outperformed expectations thanks to robust pension funding and state and local government fiscal health. Owing to this sectoral strength, as well as the high starting point of yields in 2024, bond market total returns have been healthily positive.

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This is for informative purposes only and in no event should be construed as a recommendation by us or as an offer to sell, or solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities. The information given herein is taken from sources that we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and do not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual investors. Employees of Janney Montgomery Scott LLC or its affiliates may, at times, release written or oral commentary, technical analysis, or trading strategies that differ from the opinions expressed here.

 

Returns reflect results of various indices based on target allocation weightings. Weightings are subject to change. Index returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any investment. Index performance returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs, or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged, and you cannot invest directly in an index.

 

Performance data quoted represents past performance and is no guarantee of future results. Current returns may be either higher or lower than those shown.

 

This report is the intellectual property of Janney Montgomery Scott LLC (Janney) and may not be reproduced, distributed, or published by any person for any purpose without Janney’s prior written consent.

 

This presentation has been prepared by Janney Investment Strategy Group (ISG) and is to be used for informational purposes only. In no event should it be construed as a solicitation or offer to purchase or sell a security. The information presented herein is taken from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Janney as to accuracy or completeness. Any issue named or rates mentioned are used for illustrative purposes only and may not represent the specific features or securities available at a given time. Preliminary Official Statements, Final Official Statements, or Prospectuses for any new issues mentioned herein are available upon request. The value of and income from investments may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, securities prices, and market indices, as well as operational or financial conditions of issuers or other factors. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Estimates of future performance are based on assumptions that may not be realized. We have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information contained in Janney ISG presentations or publications change.

 

Definition of Ratings

 

Overweight: Janney ISG expects the target asset class or sector to outperform the comparable benchmark (below) in its asset class in terms of total return.

 

Marketweight: Janney ISG expects the target asset class or sector to perform in line with the comparable benchmark (below) in its asset class in terms of total return.

 

Underweight: Janney ISG expects the target asset class or sector to underperform the comparable benchmark (below) in its asset class in terms of total return.

 

Benchmarks

 

Asset Classes: Janney ISG ratings for domestic fixed income asset classes including Treasuries, Agencies, Mortgages, Investment Grade Credit, High Yield Credit, and Municipals employ the “Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Market Index” as a benchmark.

 

Treasuries: Janney ISG ratings employ the “Barclays U.S. Treasury Index” as a benchmark.

 

Agencies: Janney ISG ratings employ the “Barclays U.S. Agency Index” as a benchmark.

 

Mortgages: Janney ISG ratings employ the “Barclays U.S. MBS Index” as a benchmark.

 

Investment Grade Credit: Janney ISG ratings employ the “Barclays U.S. Credit Index” as a benchmark.

 

High Yield Credit: Janney ISG ratings employ the “Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Index” as a benchmark.

 

Municipals: Janney ISG ratings employ the “Barclays Municipal Bond Index” as a benchmark.

 

Analyst Certification

 

We, Mark Luschini and Guy LeBas, the Primarily Responsible Analysts for this report, hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about any and all of the subject sectors, industries, securities, and issuers. No part of our compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.

About the authors

Mark Luschini

Chief Investment Strategist, President and Chief Investment Officer, Janney Capital Management

Read more from Mark Luschini

Guy LeBas

Director, Custom Fixed Income Solutions

Read more from Guy LeBas

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