Outlook 2025: Mid-Year Update
Overview
The Mid-year Update offers the Janney Investment Strategy Group’s baseline prognostications for the economy, the equity and fixed-income markets, their evolution, and investment implications for the remainder of 2025.
Economy & Equity Markets
Mark Luschini, Chief Investment Strategist
The economy continues to expand at a solid rate. Although the GDP release for the first quarter appears grim when taken at face value, posting a slightly negative print, it can largely be attributed to the massive swing in gold imports that was catalyzed by an unusual pricing arbitrage between the London and U.S. metals exchanges. Looking at the underlying and most important component of economic activity, consumption (as measured by real final sales to private domestic purchasers), the first quarter did show a slight moderation from the end of last year but was still near trend. The second-quarter data released so far portrays a similar picture, suggesting that the positive momentum should continue well into the second half of this year, if not beyond.
Fixed Income & Interest Rates
Guy Lebas, Chief Fixed Income Strategist
The U.S. bond market finds itself in a holding pattern in mid-2025, following a year of ups and downs. Interest rates have whipsawed on the back of policy swings, yet ultimately sit near the same levels as one year ago. Looking ahead to the next six to 12 months we find our outlook is shaped by late-cycle economic conditions.
This is for informative purposes only and in no event should be construed as a recommendation by us or as an offer to sell, or solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities. The information given herein is taken from sources that we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and do not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual investors. Employees of Janney Montgomery Scott LLC or its affiliates may, at times, release written or oral commentary, technical analysis, or trading strategies that differ from the opinions expressed here.
Returns reflect results of various indices based on target allocation weightings. Weightings are subject to change. Index returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any investment. Index performance returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs, or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged, and you cannot invest directly in an index.
Performance data quoted represents past performance and is no guarantee of future results. Current returns may be either higher or lower than those shown.
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This presentation has been prepared by Janney Investment Strategy Group (ISG) and is to be used for informational purposes only. In no event should it be construed as a solicitation or offer to purchase or sell a security. The information presented herein is taken from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Janney as to accuracy or completeness. Any issue named or rates mentioned are used for illustrative purposes only and may not represent the specific features or securities available at a given time. Preliminary Official Statements, Final Official Statements, or Prospectuses for any new issues mentioned herein are available upon request. The value of and income from investments may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, securities prices, and market indices, as well as operational or financial conditions of issuers or other factors. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Estimates of future performance are based on assumptions that may not be realized. We have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information contained in Janney ISG presentations or publications change.
