• Weaker Economic Momentum but Fading Inflation

    Stocks rallied on Friday after the December labor market report showed decelerating wage gains, a tick up in the labor-force participation rate, and positive but slowing job gains.

  • Santa Might Not Be Done

    For many years, market lore suggests that the result of the final five trading days of a year and the first two of a new year indicate what the market could do in the new year.

  • What Happened to Asset Class Returns in 2022?

    2022 was one for the record books for all the wrong reasons.

  • The First Can Be Last and Vice Versa—Sometimes

    After market direction, sector selection often has the most influence on portfolio results. Like getting market direction correct, however, finding the optimal sector mix is challenging.

  • Stock Market Observations to Begin 2023

    Finding an appropriate adjective to describe the 2022 investment environment is difficult. The same task in 2023 is not likely to be any simpler.

  • Valuation Now More Favorable for Long-Term Returns

    2022 was a difficult year for most asset classes with commodities the only major asset class to produce positive returns with the Bloomberg Commodity Index up 16.1% for the year.

  • Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions

    This paper establishes our rationale for improved returns across most asset classes in 2023.

  • Further Signs of Economic Slowing as the Year Ends

    The recent economic readings remain consistent with an economy, that while still growing, continues to lose momentum with important leading indicators suggesting further weakness ahead.

  • The Battle between the Fed and Inflation Continues

    Stocks reacted negatively last week after the Federal Reserve (Fed) raised short-term interest rates by another 0.5% and their projections and Chairman Powell’s comments suggested additional rate hikes to come to combat high inflation—all while incoming economic readings show an economy that continues to lose momentum.

  • Look Back to Look Ahead

    Although they do not offer absolute assurances of the stock market’s direction, seasonal patterns can be helpful in assessing market potential.

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