• Global Manufacturing Improves but Signs of Sticky Inflation

    The global manufacturing surveys we just received for February show encouraging signs of stabilization, driven by China’s reopening. Consumer confidence and weekly jobless claims are also consistent with further economic growth.

  • Threat of More Interest Rate Hikes Poses Headwind for Stocks

    After rebounding sharply to start the year, stocks are experiencing some volatility as better-than-expected economic readings, but evidence of sticky inflation, raise concerns that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates higher for longer.

  • Improving Confidence Suggests Lower Odds of Near-Term Recession

    Stocks fell last week as markets continue to weigh a strong January jobs report against signs that disinflation is well under way.

  • Labor Market Strength Lowers Probability of Recession

    Friday’s impressive labor market report is a good news/bad news story.

  • Slower Growth but Lower Inflation and Still-Healthy Labor Market

    The incoming economic readings remain consistent with an economy that is losing momentum, but still growing.

  • Still Tight Labor Market Implies FED Will Remain Hawkish

    Stocks traded sharply lower Friday as the September employment report showed the labor market remains too hot for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to re-evaluate its policy of higher interest rates. This is a classic example of good economic news being bad news for the stock market. The incoming economic data remains consistent with an economy that is still growing and creating jobs. This continues to put upward pressure on inflation, which the Fed is trying to tame.

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