• Stocks Struggle to Digest Aggressive Tariff Announcement

    President Trump announced a universal baseline tariff of 10% on all imports into the U.S., employing the same emergency powers he used to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico—International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

  • Reaction to “Liberation Day”

    The latest tariff announcement by the Trump Administration, declared “Liberation Day,” has set off another period of volatility in the markets.

  • March Business Surveys and Jobless Claims Consistent with Further Economic Growth

    While consumer confidence is being negatively impacted by uncertainty around tariffs and government spending cuts, we note that further labor market strength remains the key for future consumer spending.

  • Stocks Rebound from Correction Territory and React Favorably to Fed Meeting

    Stocks rallied on Wednesday after the Fed projections still showed two interest rate cuts this year, with Chairman Powell at the press conference not sounding too concerned about inflation expectations and inclined to view the potential rise in inflation from tariffs as transitory.

  • Incoming Economic Readings Consistent with Slower but Positive Economic Growth

    The February employment report showed that the labor market remains consistent with economic growth and is not sending a recession signal.

  • Business Surveys and Beige Book Consistent with Further Economic Growth

    While consumer spending fell in January, unusually cold weather and LA wildfires played a role. Meanwhile, income surged in January. While uncertainty centered on government spending cuts and tariff impacts remains high, consumers are well positioned for future spending.

  • Long-Term Market Dynamics Remain Favorable Despite Uncertainty-Driven Pullback

    The major U.S. market averages have pulled back from recent all-time highs. This reflects recent softer-than-expected economic readings and uncertainty around government policy. Pullbacks and consolidations are common occurrences, and we continue to see favorable long-term market dynamics.

  • The Trump Tariff Salvos Begin

    As of now, we view any pullback in prices to be part of the volatility we expected this year and not sufficient to warrant a change in our constructive view for the stock market over the balance of 2025, as we laid out in Outlook 2025 publication.

  • Healthy Profits and Lower Bond Yields Are Supporting Stock

    Recent stock market performance has been encouraging, with the S&P 500 reversing its 1-month downtrend while Treasury yields are moving lower off recent highs. We continue to view the recent stock market pullback as a normal occurrence in an ongoing bull market.

 

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