• Interest Rates in Turmoil

    The U.S. economy has a good chance to experience a garden-variety slowdown over the next 12 months and a small but growing chance to experience a multi-year productivity boom. If there is a mild recession, interest rates should fall somewhat. By contrast, if productivity growth does indeed accelerate, there is a lot more room for interest rates to rise.

  • A Holding Pattern

    The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee left its target for overnight interest rates unchanged at a range of 5.25 – 5.50%, continuing its every-other-meeting approach.

  • One Last Time for the Cheap Seats?

    You’d be forgiven for experiencing de ja vu with regard to our FOMC note titles: this is the second time we’ve argued this is *probably* the last rate hike of the cycle. But this time it’s for real.

  • Short-Term Fixed Income Strategies as Rates Change

    An update for investors as they review their fixed income and cash strategies during this new interest rate regime.

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