• Outlook 2024: Mid-Year Update

    To better position portfolios for the remainder of 2024, please take a few minutes to read the ISG Mid-Year Update to learn more about their expectations for the economy, and possible scenarios for the equity and fixed-income markets.

  • Creeping Closer in This Petty Pace

    FOMC Meeting Notes. The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee left its target for interest rates unchanged at a range of 5.25 – 5.50%, the eleventh month of unchanged overnight rates.

  • Higher-ish for a Little Longer-ish

    Although there will be oodles of conspiracy theories about the Fed providing stimulus by slowing QT, this announcement is just the natural conclusion of a process that started more than two years ago.

  • Finding Some Zen in a Garden of Volatility

    After substantial increases in interest rates in early 2024, we view the fixed-income markets as fairly valued relative to the economic and Fed outlook. These valuations mark the first opportunity to add duration since the cautious position we advocated in our Outlook 2024.

  • Spring Rain Delay

    The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee left its target for overnight interest rates unchanged at a range of 5.25% – 5.50%, their fifth unchanged decision. Both markets and Fed officials have ruled out the necessity of further tightening barring any tail risk to inflation.

  • Interest Rates in Turmoil

    The U.S. economy has a good chance to experience a garden-variety slowdown over the next 12 months and a small but growing chance to experience a multi-year productivity boom. If there is a mild recession, interest rates should fall somewhat. By contrast, if productivity growth does indeed accelerate, there is a lot more room for interest rates to rise.

 

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