Articles by Guy LeBas
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June Investment Perspectives
In this month’s issue, we look at what’s next for the Strait of Hormuz, compare funds versus bonds, and commemorate the 234th birthday of the New York Stock Exchange.
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Using Real Yields to Position Fixed Income Portfolios – 2026 Update
Two years ago, we introduced our Real Yields model of forward returns in the US bond markets. As of mid-May 2026, following an unexpected spike in interest rates, modeled returns projections are now at their highest point in more than two years.
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May Investment Perspectives
In this issue, we examine the rising cost of homeownership, the potential implications of Fed Chair Powell’s departure, and key market considerations for May.
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Exit Stage Left
Yielding to decades of precedent, the Fed has held that it should not react to swings in commodity prices but rather wait until evidence emerges one way or the other that broader price levels are rising. Unsurprisingly, language in the April FOMC statement emphasized the uncertain nature of energy price pass throughs, with the Committee emphasizing the phrase “Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty.”
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April Investment Perspectives
Our Investment Strategy Group examines how geopolitical tensions are influencing oil prices and market dynamics. The report also explores opportunities in emerging markets and reinforces the importance of staying focused on long-term fundamentals.
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The Penultimate Powell
Today, at his penultimate FOMC meeting, Powell led the FOMC to leave overnight interest rates unchanged at a range of 3.50 – 3.75%, where they have been since December’s cut.
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March Investment Perspectives
In this issue we discuss if it's time to rethink China, how oil and the bond market mix, and if wars derail markets.
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February Investment Perspectives
In this issue, the Investment Strategy Group explores gold's potential, the drivers in the bond market, and tech's tough stretch.
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Final Countdown
Fed Chair Jay Powell is in the final countdown of his tenure, with only two more FOMC meetings left, and the parlor game of betting on his successor is in full swing.
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January Investment Perspectives
In this issue we look at AI and its impact on productivity, how executive policy drove the market in 2025, and the January effect and stock market seasonality.
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Ratcheting Up the Attacks
The immediate situation is a developing one, and we suspect attempts to charge Jay Powell criminally will be unsuccessful, but the direction of increasing attacks on the Federal Reserve is clear.
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Outlook 2026
Outlook 2026 offers the Janney Investment Strategy Group’s baseline prognostications for the economy, the equity and fixed-income markets, their evolution, and investment implications in the New Year.
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Out With a Bang, Not a Whimper
Immediate market response had the yield curve steeper, with the front end rallying further and the long end holding earlier gains.
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Outlook 2025: Mid-Year Update
To better position portfolios for the remainder of 2025, please take a few minutes to read the ISG Mid-Year Update to learn more about their expectations for the economy, and possible scenarios for the equity and fixed-income markets.
