June Investment Perspectives
Investors Are Cueing off Profits, Not Oil Prices
Mark Luschini, Chief Investment Strategist
The conflict in Iran and its impact on the safe passage of cargo through the Strait of Hormuz remains fluid, generating a regular stream of news that has often been troubling. In turn, oil prices remain elevated, and the risk of inflation becoming more broadly embedded in the prices of goods and services has increased. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Index, a proxy for large, U.S. stocks, has risen more than 10% since we learned of the U.S. and Israeli attacks in late February and over 20% from the late March nadir, when oil prices spiked to $120 a barrel. It seems investors have increasingly left the “little excursion” behind.
Arguably, for good reason. Results for companies that released their earnings for the first quarter of this year have been phenomenal. The growth rate of 28% year-over-year is more than double what was expected, and the analytical community has quickly moved to raise forward estimates for this year and next that, if realized, project a double-digit pace over the following 18 months.
Funds vs. Bonds
Guy LeBas, Chief Fixed Income Strategist
We write primarily about markets in these pages, but beyond the direction of the economy, the level of interest rates, and even the outlook for credit, numerous more practical considerations around portfolio construction simply do not get enough attention.
The mechanism of bond ownership is one such practical consideration, and one that has grown more complicated over the last decade as exchange-traded funds moved from equity markets into nearly every corner of the fixed income universe. In the process, investors gained access to low-cost bond funds. That access is generally a good thing, but there are meaningful differences in performance between owning a portfolio of individual bonds and owning a bond fund or ETF. In our view, funds, ETFs, and individual securities each solve different problems. Which to choose depends on a handful of factors, including portfolio size, sector complexity, and investment objective, more so than market forces.
A Belated Happy Birthday
Gregory M. Drahuschak, Market Strategist
Next month, the United States will celebrate its 250th birthday. However, May had its own noteworthy celebration.
May 17, 2026, marked the 234th birthday of the New York Stock Exchange, when the “Buttonwood Agreement” was signed by 24 stockbrokers and merchants under a buttonwood tree near what is now 68 Wall Street. It is noteworthy that the Buttonwood Agreement was reached in response to the Financial Panic of 1792–one of many calamities the U.S. economy and the stock market would eventually overcome.
Trading in 1792 mostly focused on government debt and banking. The government bonds, often called “Hamilton Bonds,” were issued by Alexander Hamilton to consolidate and refinance Revolutionary War debt. Trading in bank stocks centered on the First Bank of the United States and the Bank of New York (founded by Hamilton), which was the first non-governmental stock traded. Shares of early insurance firms that were traded alongside commodities like tobacco and beaver skins were also among the few equities available to wealthy investors.
The information herein is for informative purposes only and in no event should be construed as a representation by us or as an offer to sell, or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. The factual information given herein is taken from sources that we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness. Charts and graphs are provided for illustrative purposes. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and do not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual investors.
The concepts illustrated here have legal, accounting, and tax implications. Neither Janney Montgomery Scott LLC nor its Financial Advisors give tax, legal, or accounting advice. Please consult with the appropriate professional for advice concerning your particular circumstances. Past performance is not an indication or guarantee of future results. There are no guarantees that any investment or investment strategy will meet its objectives or that an investment can avoid losses. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Exposure to an asset class represented by an index is available through investable instruments based on that index. A client’s investment results are reduced by advisory fees and transaction costs and other expenses.
Employees of Janney Montgomery Scott LLC or its affiliates may, at times, release written or oral commentary, technical analysis or trading strategies that differ from the opinions expressed within. From time to time, Janney Montgomery Scott LLC and/or one or more of its employees may have a position in the securities discussed herein.
