• June Investment Perspectives

    In this month’s issue, we look at what’s next for the Strait of Hormuz, compare funds versus bonds, and commemorate the 234th birthday of the New York Stock Exchange.

  • Business Surveys and Jobless Claims Remain Consistent with Further Economic Growth

    The first look at the May business surveys from S&P Global remains consistent with a growing economy, albeit at a slower pace than earlier in the year.

  • April Retail Sales and Industrial Production Consistent with A Sturdy U.S. Economy

    While the Iranian conflict remains a major concern, the positive performance of stocks and corporate bonds suggests the market is focused on economic fundamentals and profitability and is looking past the conflict.

  • Using Real Yields to Position Fixed Income Portfolios – 2026 Update

    Two years ago, we introduced our Real Yields model of forward returns in the US bond markets. As of mid-May 2026, following an unexpected spike in interest rates, modeled returns projections are now at their highest point in more than two years.

  • A Healthy Labor Market Report but Inflation Remains a Concern

    The S&P 500 and other important indexes remain at or near all-time highs. Stocks are being supported by resilient economic readings and corporate profitability that is exceeding expectations.

  • Business Surveys and Labor Market Indicators Consistent with A Resilient Economy

    Despite the ongoing Iranian conflict, the incoming economic readings remain consistent with a resilient U.S. economy.

  • May Investment Perspectives

    In this issue, we examine the rising cost of homeownership, the potential implications of Fed Chair Powell’s departure, and key market considerations for May.

  • Historically Low Jobless Claims and Impressive Profits Provide Key Market Support

    We continue to follow timely indicators for the effects of the Iranian conflict on the economy (and ultimately corporate profitability and stock prices).

  • Exit Stage Left

    Yielding to decades of precedent, the Fed has held that it should not react to swings in commodity prices but rather wait until evidence emerges one way or the other that broader price levels are rising. Unsurprisingly, language in the April FOMC statement emphasized the uncertain nature of energy price pass throughs, with the Committee emphasizing the phrase “Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty.”

  • March Retail Sales Consistent with A Resilient Consumer Despite Iranian Conflict

    With 21% of the S&P 500 market capitalization reported, earnings growth expectations are up to a healthy 15% rate for the first quarter. These confirming signals suggest the market is focused on positive economic fundamentals and is looking past the Iranian conflict.

 

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