• Investment Implications of a Potential Government Shutdown

    We have the following thoughts on the potential government shutdown.

  • A Holding Pattern

    The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee left its target for overnight interest rates unchanged at a range of 5.25 – 5.50%, continuing its every-other-meeting approach.

  • Economic and Stock Market Indicators Remain Consistent with Growth

    Despite inflation stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s target, we still see future progress on inflation while the market is still calling for no interest rate hike at the September FOMC meeting. The labor market indicators remain healthy, coupled with slowly receding inflation, suggest that a soft landing for the economy can still be achieved.

  • September Investment Perspectives

    In this issue we take a look at BRICS+ and potential investment opportunities, determine if bond market supply matters, and discuss why September is a more worrisome month for stocks than October.

  • Recent Indicators Suggest a Higher Probability of Achieving Soft Landing

    Business surveys and jobless claims remain consistent with a growing economy. Coupled with a softer labor market, this suggests an increased probability that the Federal Reserve (Fed) can achieve its objective of a soft landing for the economy.

  • Stocks Are Applauding Signs of Cooling in the Overheated Labor Market

    Stocks are reacting favorably to signs of cooling in the overheated labor market, and we remain encouraged by outperformance of cyclical sectors that benefit from economic growth.

  • Stocks Remain in Consolidation Phase With Key Support Levels Holding

    Current economic indicators, including state indexes, jobless claims, and the Conference Board’s Coincident Economic Index, remain consistent with further growth.

  • Stocks Remain Supported by a Healthy Labor Market and Lower Inflation

    Stocks remain in an uptrend, supported by positive economic growth and receding inflation which is leading to improved business and consumer confidence.

  • August Investment Perspectives

    In the latest Investment Perspectives we discuss why GDP matters for investors, explore ways to structure a core holding of long-term bonds, and determine if the market can cast aside seasonal weakness and build on the July rally.

  • One Last Time for the Cheap Seats?

    You’d be forgiven for experiencing de ja vu with regard to our FOMC note titles: this is the second time we’ve argued this is *probably* the last rate hike of the cycle. But this time it’s for real.

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