Articles by Michael Halloran
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Robust Economic Readings and Corporate Profits are Supporting Stock Prices
The ISM business surveys, which provide timely insight into the U.S. economy, showed an acceleration in activity in May.
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Business Surveys and Jobless Claims Remain Consistent with Further Economic Growth
The first look at the May business surveys from S&P Global remains consistent with a growing economy, albeit at a slower pace than earlier in the year.
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April Retail Sales and Industrial Production Consistent with A Sturdy U.S. Economy
While the Iranian conflict remains a major concern, the positive performance of stocks and corporate bonds suggests the market is focused on economic fundamentals and profitability and is looking past the conflict.
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Business Surveys and Labor Market Indicators Consistent with A Resilient Economy
Despite the ongoing Iranian conflict, the incoming economic readings remain consistent with a resilient U.S. economy.
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Historically Low Jobless Claims and Impressive Profits Provide Key Market Support
We continue to follow timely indicators for the effects of the Iranian conflict on the economy (and ultimately corporate profitability and stock prices).
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March Retail Sales Consistent with A Resilient Consumer Despite Iranian Conflict
With 21% of the S&P 500 market capitalization reported, earnings growth expectations are up to a healthy 15% rate for the first quarter. These confirming signals suggest the market is focused on positive economic fundamentals and is looking past the Iranian conflict.
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Earnings Season Is Once Again Off to A Positive Start
Earnings season kicked off this week with the major banks generally reporting better than expected results. The banks provide important insight into the health of consumers, businesses, and the overall economy.
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Investment Themes for the Next Decade
This piece reviews the major secular investment trends that we believe will influence the economy and markets in the coming years.
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Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions 2026
This report, the most requested research, establishes our long-term return assumptions across major asset classes and includes representative model portfolios.
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Venezuelan Regime Change Investment Implications
U.S. action in Venezuela points to substantial uncertainty regarding the country’s outlook, though financial market effects remain limited.
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Portfolio Construction
In this special report, we review the fundamental guiding principles of a well-constructed portfolio.
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Healthy Profits and Lower Bond Yields Are Supporting Stock
Recent stock market performance has been encouraging, with the S&P 500 reversing its 1-month downtrend while Treasury yields are moving lower off recent highs. We continue to view the recent stock market pullback as a normal occurrence in an ongoing bull market.
