Articles by Michael Halloran
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What Impact Will the Upcoming Sector Rebalancing Have?
As a result of their annual review of the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) structure, S&P Dow Jones and MSCI (providers of financial market indices) will be making several changes intended to better represent global equity markets for investors.
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Thoughts on Recent Volatility and Economic Releases
Stocks have been under pressure lately, first driven by hawkish commentary of further interest rate hikes by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Powell during testimony to Congress and recently by concerns of bond portfolio losses within the banking system.
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Global Manufacturing Improves but Signs of Sticky Inflation
The global manufacturing surveys we just received for February show encouraging signs of stabilization, driven by China’s reopening. Consumer confidence and weekly jobless claims are also consistent with further economic growth.
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Threat of More Interest Rate Hikes Poses Headwind for Stocks
After rebounding sharply to start the year, stocks are experiencing some volatility as better-than-expected economic readings, but evidence of sticky inflation, raise concerns that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates higher for longer.
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Improving Confidence Suggests Lower Odds of Near-Term Recession
Stocks fell last week as markets continue to weigh a strong January jobs report against signs that disinflation is well under way.
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Labor Market Strength Lowers Probability of Recession
Friday’s impressive labor market report is a good news/bad news story.
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How Do Small-Cap Stocks Fit Into My Investment Mix?
Where an investor falls on the large-cap vs. small-cap debate normally aligns with their risk appetite.
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Slower Growth but Lower Inflation and Still-Healthy Labor Market
The incoming economic readings remain consistent with an economy that is losing momentum, but still growing.
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The Impact of Gold from a Diversification Standpoint
Gold has long been considered a valuable hedge against equity bear markets and its low correlation with equities provides valuable portfolio diversification that has been consistent over time.
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Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions
This paper establishes our rationale for improved returns across most asset classes in 2023.
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Thoughts on Midterm Election Outcome
With Republicans winning a majority of seats in the House of Representatives and Democrats holding the edge in the Senate with at least 50 seats and Vice President Kamala Harris as a tiebreaking vote, we will now have two years of divided government.
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Thoughts on Bear Markets and Recessions
Given this year’s market selloff and concerns about a potential recession, we thought it was important to review previous bear markets and recessions for perspective.
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Investing in Water
We view water as a long-term investment theme that impacts many industries. This piece reviews the importance of water to life and the economy and highlights major investment implications.
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Still Tight Labor Market Implies FED Will Remain Hawkish
Stocks traded sharply lower Friday as the September employment report showed the labor market remains too hot for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to re-evaluate its policy of higher interest rates. This is a classic example of good economic news being bad news for the stock market. The incoming economic data remains consistent with an economy that is still growing and creating jobs. This continues to put upward pressure on inflation, which the Fed is trying to tame.
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The Future of Defense Spending
With the war in Ukraine ongoing and geopolitical tensions with China showing no signs of receding, there is a renewed focus on defense spending not seen since the Cold War. Consequently, we expect investor interest in the defense industry to remain high in the coming years. This piece reviews critical aspects of the defense industry and highlights where future modernization dollars could be spent.
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Cybersecurity Update
This paper reviews the critical aspects of cybersecurity and security spending.
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The Case for Infrastructure Spending
Congress recently passed the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill, formally called the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, and President Biden said he would sign the landmark bill into law soon.
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A guide to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investing
Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) investing is a rapidly growing investment discipline that includes many factors that make up traditional corporate best practices. Consequently, many firms that score well on ESG metrics are also solid investment opportunities. While ESG evaluation is popular with women and millennials—two groups that continue to gain prominence in the investment world—it continues to gain importance for all investors. This piece reviews ESG investing.
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Clean energy investment implications
With concerns mounting about the human influence on climate change, highlighted by U.S. President Joe Biden rejoining the Paris Agreement on his first day in office, the importance of clean energy to the economy continues to grow.