• Higher-ish for a Little Longer-ish

    Although there will be oodles of conspiracy theories about the Fed providing stimulus by slowing QT, this announcement is just the natural conclusion of a process that started more than two years ago.

  • Behavioral Finance and Investment Principles IV

    Part 4: Endowment Effect, Sunk-Cost Fallacy, Illusion of Control.

  • Behavioral Finance and Investment Principles III

    Part 3: Overconfidence, Anchoring Effect, and Herding.

  • April Investment Perspectives

    In this issue we discuss opportunities in the Eurozone, understanding the sensitivity to volatility, and the record-breaking stock market performance.

  • Finding Some Zen in a Garden of Volatility

    After substantial increases in interest rates in early 2024, we view the fixed-income markets as fairly valued relative to the economic and Fed outlook. These valuations mark the first opportunity to add duration since the cautious position we advocated in our Outlook 2024.

  • Investment Themes for the Next Decade

    This piece reviews the major secular investment trends that will influence the economy and markets in the coming years.

  • Behavioral Finance and Investment Principles II

    Part 2: Familiarity Bias, Framing Bias, and Mental Accounting.

  • Spring Rain Delay

    The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee left its target for overnight interest rates unchanged at a range of 5.25% – 5.50%, their fifth unchanged decision. Both markets and Fed officials have ruled out the necessity of further tightening barring any tail risk to inflation.

  • Behavioral Finance and Investment Principles I

    Part 1: Introduction, Prospect Theory, Loss Aversion, Recency Bias

  • March Investment Perspectives

    In this latest Investment Perspectives, we discuss the economic evolution of Mexico, the Fed’s many misconceptions, and whether there are new highs ahead for the S&P 500.

 

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