• Thoughts on Banking System Stress

    Bank stocks remain under pressure with recent bank failures, causing fears of broader contagion. The concerns center on potential losses from bank’s bond portfolios (primarily high-quality Treasury bonds that have lost value due to rising interest rates) and depositors fleeing to large systemically important financial institutions.

  • Banking Turmoil Underscores Impact of Rate Hikes

    It’s not every day that a top 20 bank in the United States faces a takeover by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). In fact, prior to March 2023, it had been 868 days without a bank failure—the longest stretch since the founding of the FDIC.

  • Thoughts on Recent Volatility and Economic Releases

    Stocks have been under pressure lately, first driven by hawkish commentary of further interest rate hikes by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Powell during testimony to Congress and recently by concerns of bond portfolio losses within the banking system.

  • Global Manufacturing Improves but Signs of Sticky Inflation

    The global manufacturing surveys we just received for February show encouraging signs of stabilization, driven by China’s reopening. Consumer confidence and weekly jobless claims are also consistent with further economic growth.

  • The Other-Hand Market

    Faced with often indecisive economic views, President Harry S. Truman yearned for what he called a one-handed economist who could offer an opinion without then beginning a countering view with the phrase “on the other hand.”

  • Threat of More Interest Rate Hikes Poses Headwind for Stocks

    After rebounding sharply to start the year, stocks are experiencing some volatility as better-than-expected economic readings, but evidence of sticky inflation, raise concerns that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates higher for longer.

  • Improving Confidence Suggests Lower Odds of Near-Term Recession

    Stocks fell last week as markets continue to weigh a strong January jobs report against signs that disinflation is well under way.

  • Thoughts on Bear Markets and Recessions

    Given this year’s market selloff and concerns about a potential recession, we thought it was important to review previous bear markets and recessions for perspective.

  • Pictures VS. Thousands of Words and Numbers

    In coming weeks, companies will reveal their third-quarter results. It is up to investors to be sure they properly interpret the results.

  • Still Tight Labor Market Implies FED Will Remain Hawkish

    Stocks traded sharply lower Friday as the September employment report showed the labor market remains too hot for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to re-evaluate its policy of higher interest rates. This is a classic example of good economic news being bad news for the stock market. The incoming economic data remains consistent with an economy that is still growing and creating jobs. This continues to put upward pressure on inflation, which the Fed is trying to tame.

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